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- 中国贸易收支波动的机理及主要因素研究 本书提出了一个综合的多渠道分析框架探讨中国贸易收支波动的形成机理，识别和指出影响中国贸易收支的关键影响因素。本研究为客观评估中国贸易收支余额未来的可能走势提供了理论依据，同时为如何缓解我国的贸易失衡事实提供政策启示。从一个多维视角出发，构建了一个综合的多渠道分析框架探讨中国贸易收支的形成机理，从供给渠道、需求渠道和相对价格渠道，对影响中国贸易收支的主要经济因素进行测度。
作者：顾欣 编辑：裴维维 ISBN：978-7-305-17126-0 出版时间：201607 字数：245 定价：28.00 开本：32开 页数：254 装订：平装 版次：1 CIP分类号：2016134751
顾欣，女，汉族，1982年10月出生，江苏南通人。2013年毕业于澳大利亚詹姆斯·库克大学，获经济学博士学位。现为东南大学经济管理学院副教授，对贸易收支领域有长期的关注和研究，先后主持和参与了国家级、省部级等多项科研教改项目，发表论文多篇。
本书提出了一个综合的多渠道分析框架探讨中国贸易收支波动的形成机理，识别和指出影响中国贸易收支的关键影响因素。本研究为客观评估中国贸易收支余额未来的可能走势提供了理论依据，同时为如何缓解我国的贸易失衡事实提供政策启示。从一个多维视角出发，构建了一个综合的多渠道分析框架探讨中国贸易收支的形成机理，从供给渠道、需求渠道和相对价格渠道，对影响中国贸易收支的主要经济因素进行测度。
目录
TABLE OF CONTENT
Abtract i
Table of contents iv
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Introduction .......... 1
1.2 Motivations for this study 3
1.3 Research questions and objectives 4
1.4 Methodology....................................................................................................4
1.5 Significance of the research 5
1.6 Organisation of the thesis 6
Chapter 2 China’s Trade Performances and Trade Reforms 8
2.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................8
2.2 China’s trade balance position 8
2.3 China’s foreign trade 9
2.4 Reform of China’s trade regime 18
2.5 Structural changes and external dependence 23
2.6 Summary........................................................................................................27
Chapter 3 Review of the Literature 29
3.1 Introduction...................................................................................................29
3.2 Theoretical basis for determinants of trade balance 31
3.2.1 Productivity and trade balance 32
3.2.2 Income and trade balance 34
3.2.3 Exchange rate, relative price effects and the balance of trade 35
3.2.4 Monetary view of trade balance 38
3.3 Empirical research 44
3.3.1 Country-specific studies 44
3.3.2 Cross-country studies 48
3.4 Existing studies on the determinants of China’s trade balance 55
3.4.1 Supply-side explanations 55
3.4.2 Relative price effect: the exchange rate 56
3.4.3 Demand-side considerations 58
3.5 Summary........................................................................................................59
Chapter 4 Research Methodology 61
4.1 Research framework 61
4.2 Econometric modelling 64
4.2.1 The standard model of trade balance 64
4.2.2 An extension of the standard model 66
4.2.3 Variable construction and data acquisition 68
4.3 Estimation strategies 69
4.4 Summary........................................................................................................76
Chapter 5 Determinants of China’s Trade Balance—
a Multifaceted Perspective 77
5.1 Economic factors 77
5.1.1 A supply-side explanation 77
5.1.2 Relative price effects 84
5.1.3 Demand-side considerations: consumption constraints 86
5.2 Socio-cultural factors 91
5.2.1 Social ideology, social structure and labour supply 92
5.2.2 Social networks and FDI inflows 93
5.2.3 Demographic structure, social welfare system and saving
behaviour ....................................................................................95
5.2.4 “Shanzhai” products crowd out imports 97
5.3 Institutional factors 98
5.3.1 Segmented labour markets 98
5.3.2 Strong incentives of local officials to attract inward FDI 98
5.3.3 Weak labour trade unions 99
5.4 Conclusion.....................................................................................................99
Chapter 6 Effects of Economic Determinants on China’s Trade Balance—an Aggregate Analysis 101
6.1 Model specification and methodological procedures 101
6.2 Variable construction and data 104
6.3 Empirical results ...........................................................................................105
6.4 Discussion and conclusion 110
Chapter 7 Effects of Economic Determinants on China’s Trade Balance—a Disaggregate Analysis 112
7.1 Decomposing China’s trade balance 112
7.1.1 The problem..................................................................................114
7.1.2 Data and adjustment methods 114
7.1.3 Adjusted trade balance 118
7.2 Model specification 121
7.3 Results.........................................................................................................122
7.4 Discussion and conclusion 127
Chapter 8 CONCLUSIONS 129
8.1 Findings and conclusions 129
8.2 Significance and contributions 134
8.3 Implications.................................................................................................136
8.4 Limitations and future research 138
BIBLIOGRAPHY 140
